GDP: Preliminary Estimate for 2019Q4 and Outlook for 2020
Contact Information : Economic Forecast Section, Department of Statistics, Directorate General of Budget, Accounting & Statistics (DGBAS)
Tel : 886-2-2380-3487
February 12, 2020 Taiwan's real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 3.31% from the same quarter of the previous year in 2019Q4, according to the latest preliminary estimate. For the whole 2019, the economic growth rate was 2.71%. Meanwhile, the real GDP is projected to grow by 2.37% in 2020.
Preliminary Estimate of Real GDP in 2019Q4 and 2019
The real GDP increased by 7.76% on a quarter-on-quarter, seasonally-adjusted annualized basis (saar), or by 3.31% on a year-on-year basis (yoy) in 2019Q4, 0.07 percentage point lower than the advance estimate.
Meanwhile, the economic growth rate of 2019Q3 has been revised to 3.03% (formerly 2.99%). For the whole 2019, real GDP grew by 2.71%.
On the demand side, real private final consumption expanded by 2.63% (yoy) in 2019Q4, higher than the 2.52% growth in the previous quarter, mainly reflecting the sales growth of cars and electric scooters and the increase in financial services. However, the higher base of 9-in-1 elections spending in 2018Q4 partly offset the growth.
Real gross capital formation expanded by 10.50% (yoy), turning from the 0.85% decline in the previous quarter, mainly due to the robust increase in machinery and equipment investment.
In addition, real exports of goods and services grew by 2.64% (yoy), higher than the 0.03% decline in the previous quarter, mainly driven by the foreign strong demand for information, communication and audio-video, as well as parts of electronic products. Imports also increased by 4.44% (yoy).
On the production side, the manufacturing sector grew by 1.74% (yoy) in 2019Q4, following the1.78% increase in the previous quarter, mainly due to the output expansion of semiconductor and computers, electronic & optical products.
The wholesale & retail trade sector and the financial & insurance sector increased by 4.95% and 5.48%(both yoy) respectively, after the expansion of 3.00% and 6.04% growth in the previous quarter.
Outlook for 2020
The export growth in 2020 will be supported by the emerging demand for new technological applications, such as 5G, internet of things (IOT) and artificial intelligence as well as the competitive dominance in semiconductor manufacturing industry, while dampened by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak. It is expected for real exports of goods and services to grow by 1.73%.
Real private consumption will grow by 1.58%. Though the COVID-19 outbreak might lower the consumer confidence, it is expected that the impact could be partly offset by the emerging e-commerce and food delivery services, and will be eased over time.
Real private fixed capital formation is anticipated to grow by 3.10%, due to the continuing investment of semiconductor industry, 5G infrastructure, and the reshoring Taiwan’s overseas companies.
Combining the above components as well as the public sector, Taiwan’s real GDP is projected to grow by 2.37% in 2020, downward revised by 0.35 percentage point from the previous forecast.
Consumer price Index (CPI) will gently increase 0.62%, downward revised by 0.09 percentage point, mainly reflecting the cost reduction resulted from the decline in prices of raw material.
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