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GDP: Preliminary Estimate for 2018Q2 and Outlook for 2018-19

Contact Information : Economic Forecast Section, Department of Statistics, Directorate General of Budget, Accounting & Statistics (DGBAS)
Tel : 886-2-2380-3487

According to the preliminary estimate, Taiwan's real gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.30% in 2018Q2, compared to the same period of the previous year (yoy), and the growth rate (yoy) of 2018Q1 has been revised to 3.10%. The real GDP is predicted to grow 2.69% and 2.55% in 2018 and 2019, respectively.

Preliminary Estimate of Real GDP in 2018Q2
        Taiwan's real GDP increased by 1.62% on a quarter-on-quarter, seasonally-adjusted annualized basis (saar), and 3.30% on a year-on-year basis (yoy) in 2018Q2, 0.01 percentage point higher than the advance estimate.
        Meanwhile, the economic growth rate of 2018Q1 has been revised to 3.10% (formerly 3.02%).
        On the demand side, real private final consumption grew by 2.55% (yoy) in 2018Q2, driven mainly by sales growth of jewelry and boutique watches, rising spending on home appliances in response to the high temperature, and on FIFA World Cup featuring merchandise, as well as finance-service.
        Real gross capital formation decreased by 2.57% (yoy), extending the 0.40% decline in the previous quarter, mainly due to decreasing machinery and equipment investment.
        Meanwhile, real exports of goods and services grew by 6.29% (yoy), owing to the foreign strong demand for electronic components, machinery, metal, chemistry and plastic products. Imports also increased by 4.48% (yoy).
        On the production side, the manufacturing sector grew by 5.03%(yoy) in 2018Q2, following the 3.02% increase in the previous quarter, mainly due to the output expansion of semiconductor and machinery-and-equipment.
        The wholesale & retail trade sector and the financial & insurance sector increased by 4.56% and 5.68%(both yoy) respectively, after the expansion of 4.37% and 7.25% growth in the previous quarter.

Forecast for 2018
        After a spurt in late 2017 and the first half-year of 2018, the momentum in the world economy is expected to slow down modestly. Additionally, the high oil prices, trade conflicts, and geopolitical conflict issues will be likely to add downside risks for the world economy. However, the strong semiconductor's demand for new technological applications, such as High-Performance Computing (HPC), automotive electronics and Internet of Things (IoT), as well as the forerunning semiconductor manufacturing techniques are continuously expected to contribute to Taiwan’s exports of goods. Along with exports of services, it is projected that the real exports of goods and services will grow by 3.35% in the whole 2018.
        Real private fixed capital formation is anticipated to increase by 4.26%, due to expected accelerating capital expenditure of semiconductor manufacturing in the second half of this year, and the recovery of construction investment.
        Real private consumption is foreseen to grow by 2.47%, supported by stable economic expansion, improving labor market and wage lift, but escalating global trade tensions and volatile financial market might dampen consumer confidence.
        Combining with the public sector, Taiwan’s real GDP is predicted to grow by 2.69% in 2018, 0.09 percentage point higher than the previous forecast released in May.
        CPI will increase by 1.52%, upwardly revised by 0.03 percentage point, mainly reflecting the escalating oil prices.

Outlook for 2019
        The global economy and world trade volume are anticipated to continue expanding in 2019 even with the high base effect, which helps to sustain Taiwan’s export growth. Combining the contribution from domestic sector, real GDP will grow by 2.55% in 2019. CPI will gently rise by 0.93%.

Full text and tables (PDF)

【Attachment】

  • Table 1-1 Gross Domestic Product and Economic Growth Rate (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 1-2 GDP、GNI and NI (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table   2  Changes in Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 3-1 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : At Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 3-2 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Composition at Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 3-3 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Growth Rates In Chained Volume Indexes(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 3-4 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Contributions to Economic Growth Rate(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 4-1 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : At Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 4-2 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Composition at Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 4-3 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Growth Rates In Chained Volume Indexes(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 4-4 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Contributions to Economic Growth Rate (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table   5  Gross National Savings and Gross Domestic Investment (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table   6  Exports and Imports (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 7-1 Expenditures on GDP, Seasonally Adjusted : Chained dollars (Reference year = 2011) (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 7-2 Expenditures on GDP, Seasonally Adjusted : Growth Rates (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table   8  Indicators for Private Final Consumption Expenditure (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table   9  Indicators for Private Gross Fixed Capital Formation (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  10  Economic Growth Rates of Major Countries (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  11  The Changes of Consumer Price Indices for Major Countries (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  12  Summary of Earning and Productivity Statistics in Taiwan Area (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  13  Major Figures of Family Income and Expenditure (1/2) (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  13  Major Figures of Family Income and Expenditure (2/2) (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  14  The Change of Disposable Income per Household Occurred by Current Transfers between Households and Government (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  15  Household Income Distribution of Major Countries(Area) (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  16  Household Facilities and Housing in Taiwan Area (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  17  Government Social Transfers In Kind Effect on Income Distribution, by Income Quintile (EXCEL) (ODF)