National Statistics, Republic of China (Taiwan)

August 16, 2024　 For the second quarter of 2024, Taiwan’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.06% from the same period of previous year according to the latest preliminary estimate, and the growth rate of 2024Q1 has been revised to 6.63%. Furthermore, the real GDP is predicted to grow 3.90% and 3.26% in 2024 and 2025, respectively.

Preliminary Estimate of Real GDP in 2024Q2

        The real GDP grew by 1.16% on a quarter-on-quarter, seasonally-adjusted annualized basis (saar) and 5.06% on a year-on-year basis (yoy, all growth rates hereafter are on the same basis) in 2024Q2, 0.03 percentage point lower than the advance estimate.

        Meanwhile, the economic growth rate of 2024Q1 has been revised to 6.63% (formerly 6.56%).

        On the demand side, due to the thriving of emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence (AI), and the gradual recovery in end-user demand, real exports of goods and services grew by 7.65%. Imports also grew by 10.15%.

        Real private final consumption expanded by 2.77% in 2024Q2, mainly driven by expenditures on services such as air passenger transport and outbound tourism, as well as the securities and funds transaction fees boosted by flourishing financial market.

        Regarding gross capital formation, investments in machinery equipment, construction and intellectual property products increased. Combining inventory changes, real gross capital formation expanded by 14.78%.

        On the production side, the manufacturing sector increased by 10.11% in 2024Q2, following the 6.51% increase in the previous quarter, mainly due to the output expansion of semiconductor and computers, electronic & optical products.

        The wholesale and retail trade sector increased by 5.08%, after the expansion of 5.46% in the previous quarter.

        The transportation and storage sector grew by 8.45% in 2024Q2, due to the growing number of passengers taking land and air transport.

        The financial and insurance sector increased by 15.93% in 2024Q2, following the 17.18% growth in the previous quarter.

Forecast for 2024

        Global economy is expected to grow at a steady pace, supported by moderating inflation and recovering demand. According to International Monetary Fund (IMF), the world trade volume is projected to grow by 3.1% in 2024, faster than 0.8% in 2023. Despite the sluggish recovery of traditional products, the strong demand for AI has been surging Taiwan’s exports of information, communication and audio-video products. In aggregate with services exports, real exports of goods and services will grow by 7.76% in 2024.

        Real private consumption will grow by 2.78%, supported by the strong labor market and wage lift, along with the wealth effect stemming from the rising stock market. The growth also benefits from the ongoing outbound travel boom.

        Real private fixed capital formation is anticipated to increase by 3.89%. To meet the strong demand for AI applications and high-tech products, semiconductor companies have been expanding their capacity in advanced process and packaging technology at a faster pace. Moreover, several major international firms have announced to scale up investments in Taiwan, such as setting up R&D and data centers, boosting investments in intellectual property. In addition, the blooming housing market will further contribute to Taiwan’s investment growth in construction.

        Combining the above components as well as the public sector, Taiwan’s real GDP is projected to grow by 3.90% in 2024, slightly revised downward by 0.04 percentage point from the previous forecast.

        Consumer price Index (CPI) will increase 2.17%, revised upward by 0.10 percentage point, mainly reflecting the increasing price in fruits and vegetables due to Typhoon Gaemi with heavy rainfall, and the price hike in the services sector, such as the lasting price rises in food away from home, residential rents, and medical care services.

Outlook for 2025

        The world trade volume will continue to grow by 3.4% in 2025 according to IMF. The accelerating expansion of AI applications, coupled with our comprehensive and highly competitive local manufacturing supply chains, will support the steady growth of Taiwan’s export and investment. Combining the contribution from domestic sector, real GDP will grow by 3.26% in 2025. The consumer price inflation will contract gently to 1.91% after exceeding 2% for three consecutive years.

Full text and tables (PDF)

【Attachment】

• Table 1-1 Gross Domestic Product and Economic Growth Rate (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 1-2 GDP、GNI and NI (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table   2  Changes in Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 3-1 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : At Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 3-2 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Composition at Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 3-3 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Growth Rates In Chained Volume Indexes(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 3-4 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Contributions to Economic Growth Rate(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 4-1 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : At Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 4-2 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Composition at Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 4-3 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Growth Rates In Chained Volume Indexes(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 4-4 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Contributions to Economic Growth Rate (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table   5  Gross National Savings and Gross Domestic Investment (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table   6  Exports and Imports (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 7-1 Expenditures on GDP, Seasonally Adjusted : Chained dollars (Reference year = 2016) (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 7-2 Expenditures on GDP, Seasonally Adjusted : Growth Rates (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table   8   Indicators for Private Final Consumption Expenditure (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table   9   Indicators for Private Gross Fixed Capital Formation (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table  10  Economic Growth Rates of Major Countries (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table  11  Percent Changes in CPI and Food Index of Major Countries & Regions (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table  12  Major Figures of Family Income and Expenditure (1/2) (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table  12  Major Figures of Family Income and Expenditure (2/2) (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table  13  The Change of Disposable Income per Household Occurred by Current Transfers between Households and Government (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table  14  Household Income Distribution of Major Countries(Area) (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table  15  Household Facilities and Housing in Taiwan Area (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table  16  Government Social Transfers In Kind Effect on Income Distribution, by Income Quintile (EXCEL) (ODF)