National Statistics, Republic of China (Taiwan)

February 22, 2023　In 2022Q4, Taiwan’s real gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 0.41% from the same quarter of the previous year according to the latest preliminary estimate. For the whole 2022, the economic growth rate was 2.45%. Meanwhile, the real GDP is projected to grow by 2.12% in 2023.

Preliminary Estimate of Real GDP in 2022Q4 and 2022

        The real GDP contracted by 1.46% on a quarter-on-quarter, seasonally-adjusted annualized basis (saar) and 0.41% on a year-on-year basis (yoy, all growth rates hereafter are on the same basis) in 2022Q4, 0.45 percentage point higher than the advance estimate.

        Meanwhile, the economic growth rate of 2022Q3 has been revised to 3.64% (formerly 4.01%). For the whole 2022, real GDP grew by 2.45%.

        On the demand side, real private final consumption grew by 3.24 % in 2022Q4, primarily due to recovery in consumption such as dining out, recreation and transportation, partly offset by the decrease in financial services.

        Regarding gross capital formation, investment in machinery equipment and intellectual property products grew continuously. However, investment in constructions and transportation equipment reduced. Combining inventory changes, real gross capital formation decreased by 0.25%.

        In addition, real exports of goods and services fell by 5.14%, dragged by weakened global demand and inventory adjustment. Imports also decreased by 1.65%.

        On the production side, the manufacturing sector decreased by 4.38% in 2022Q4, lower than the 2.79% increase in the previous quarter, mainly due to the weak market demand for chemical material, basic metal, fabricated metal products, and machinery & equipment.

        The wholesale and retail trade sector decreased by 3.37%, after the expansion of 1.85% in the previous quarter.

        The transportation and storage sector grew by 9.58% in 2022Q4, due to the growing number of passengers taking land and air transportation.

        The financial and insurance sector decreased by 8.73% in 2022Q4, following the 5.43% decline in the previous quarter.

Outlook for 2023

        Global economic growth is projected to slow down due to the demand crunch caused by the ongoing Russia’s war in Ukraine and tightening monetary policy against inflation across countries, as well as the cooling down of material and product prices and inventory adjustments. According to International Monetary Fund (IMF), the crumbled momentum of global demand is indicated by the world trade volume projected to grow by 2.4% in 2023, lower than 5.4% in 2022. However, the increase of surged inbound tourists would spur travel revenue. In aggregate with services exports, real exports of goods and services will grow by 0.04% in 2023.

        Real private consumption will grow by 5.24%. As the domestic COVID-19 control eased, consumption is backing to normality. The growth also benefits from the improvement of labor market and the flourishing out-bound tourism owing to the reopening of borders.

        The continuing investment of semiconductor industry, the reshoring Taiwan’s overseas companies, sustaining investment in offshore wind energy and airline companies expanding aircraft fleets to cope with the increasing cross-border tourism, all will support investment. However, companies’ capital spendings may be cautious due to the uncertainty toward global outlook and the effect of a high base. Real private fixed capital formation will decrease by 1.13%.

        Combining the above components as well as the public sector, Taiwan’s real GDP is projected to grow by 2.12% in 2023, revised downward by 0.63 percentage point from the previous forecast.

        Consumer price Index (CPI) will increase 2.16%, revised upward by 0.30 percentage point, mainly reflecting the extended price surge in food away from home and residential rent. The costs of travel are also expected to be raised owing to increasing of the cross-border tourism.

Full text and tables (PDF)

【Attachment】

• Table 1-1 Gross Domestic Product and Economic Growth Rate (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 1-2 GDP、GNI and NI (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table   2  Changes in Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 3-1 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : At Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 3-2 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Composition at Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 3-3 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Growth Rates In Chained Volume Indexes(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 3-4 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Contributions to Economic Growth Rate(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 4-1 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : At Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 4-2 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Composition at Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 4-3 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Growth Rates In Chained Volume Indexes(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 4-4 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Contributions to Economic Growth Rate (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table   5  Gross National Savings and Gross Domestic Investment (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table   6  Exports and Imports (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 7-1 Expenditures on GDP, Seasonally Adjusted : Chained dollars (Reference year = 2016) (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 7-2 Expenditures on GDP, Seasonally Adjusted : Growth Rates (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table   8   Indicators for Private Final Consumption Expenditure (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table   9   Indicators for Private Gross Fixed Capital Formation (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table  10  Economic Growth Rates of Major Countries (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table  11  The Changes of Consumer Price Indices for Major Countries (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table  12  Summary of Earning and Productivity Statistics in Taiwan Area (EXCEL) (ODF)