National Statistics, Republic of China (Taiwan)

November 28, 2023　For the third quarter of 2023, Taiwan’s real gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 2.32% from the same period of previous year according to the latest preliminary estimate. Besides, the real GDP is predicted to grow 1.42% and 3.35% in 2023 and 2024, respectively.

Preliminary Estimate of Real GDP in 2023Q3

        The real GDP increased by 7.81% on a quarter-on-quarter, seasonally-adjusted annualized basis(saar) in 2023Q3, and grew by 2.32% on a year-on-year basis(yoy, all growth rates hereafter are on the same basis), same as the advanced estimate.

        Meanwhile, the economic growth rates of 2023Q1 and Q2 have been revised to -3.49% and 1.41% (formerly -3.31% and 1.36%).

        On the demand side, real private final consumption grew by 9.23% in 2023Q3, mainly driven by expenditures on services such as transportation, dining out, accommodation, recreation, as well as consumption on vehicles and the flourishing outbound tourism.

        Despite the emerging of AI applications, global demand remained weak, real exports of goods and services dropped by 1.35%. Imports also fell by 4.45%.

        Regarding gross capital formation, investment in transportation equipment grew significantly. However, investment in construction and machinery equipment reduced. Combining the reduction of inventory, real gross capital formation declined by 12.29%.

        On the production side, the manufacturing sector decreased by 4.70% in 2023Q3, following the 9.92% decrease in the previous quarter, mainly due to the weak market demand for semiconductor, basic metal, fabricated metal products, and machinery & equipment.

        The wholesale and retail trade sector increased by 0.73%, with the decrease in wholesale offsetting the increase in retail.

        The transportation and storage sector grew by 27.53% in 2023Q3, due to the growing number of passengers taking land and air transport.

        The financial and insurance sector increased by 4.65% in 2023Q3, following the 2.86% growth in the previous quarter.

Revision for the 2021 and 2022 National Accounts

        Base on the newly available source data, DGBAS released the annual revision of the 2021 and 2022 national accounts. The yearly GDP growth rates have been revised to 6.62% (original 6.53%) for 2021 and 2.59% (2.35%) for 2022.

Forecast for 2023

        Dispite tightening policy is receding in many countries, global economic growth is projected to slow down due to the demand crunch caused by still high policy rate, the prolonged inventory reduction policies, as well as geopolitical tensions. According to International Monetary Fund (IMF), the fading momentum of global demand is indicated by the world trade volume projected to grow by 0.9%. However, the continued recovery of international tourism inflows would drive travel revenue. In aggregate with services exports, real exports of goods and services will shrink by 3.75% in 2023.

        Real private consumption will grow by 8.36%, supported by the improvement of labor market and wage lift. The growth also benefits from the normalizing out-bound tourism.

        Real private fixed capital formation is anticipated to decrease by 9.81%, reflecting the effect of previous year’s high base and enterprises’ cautious to invest due to the global economic uncertainty.

        Combining the above components as well as the public sector, Taiwan’s real GDP is projected to grow by 1.42% in 2023, revised downward by 0.19 percentage point from the previous forecast.

        Consumer price Index (CPI) will increase 2.46%, revised upward by 0.32 percentage point, mainly reflecting the raising fruits and vegetables prices owing to typhoons in the second half year and the rise in housing rental, and entertainment expenses due to the increased demand.

Outlook for 2024

        According to IMF, the global economy will grow mildly and the world trade volume is projected to grow by 3.5% in 2024, supporting Taiwan’s export growth. Moreover, the domestic capacity expansion of the advanced capacity of leading semiconductor manufacturers and enterprise digital transformation, overseas companies’ reshoring, as well as sustaining investment in solar and offshore wind energy and net-zero emissions actions, all support Taiwan’s investment growth. Combining the contribution from domestic sector, with the improving wages and the emerging consumption spurred by new technology, real GDP will grow by 3.35% in 2024. CPI will gently rise by 1.64%.

Full text and tables (PDF)

【Attachment】

• Table 1-1 Gross Domestic Product and Economic Growth Rate (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 1-2 GDP、GNI and NI (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table   2  Changes in Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 3-1 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : At Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 3-2 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Composition at Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 3-3 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Growth Rates In Chained Volume Indexes(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 3-4 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Contributions to Economic Growth Rate(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 4-1 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : At Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 4-2 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Composition at Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 4-3 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Growth Rates In Chained Volume Indexes(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 4-4 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Contributions to Economic Growth Rate (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table   5  Gross National Savings and Gross Domestic Investment (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table   6  Exports and Imports (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 7-1 Gross Domestic Product and Factor Incomes : At Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 7-2 Growth Rates in Gross Domestic Product and Factor Incomes : At Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 7-3 Composition of Gross Domestic Product and Factor Incomes : At Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 8-1 Value-Added Rate by Kind of Activity (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 8-2 Value-Added Rate by Kind of Manufacturing (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table   9  Gross Domestic Product and Gross Fixed Captial Formation of the ICT Industry (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 10-1 Expenditures on GDP, Seasonally Adjusted : Chained dollars (Reference year = 2016) (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 10-2 Expenditures on GDP, Seasonally Adjusted : Growth Rates (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table  11  Indicators for Private Final Consumption Expenditure (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table  12  Indicators for Private Gross Fixed Capital Formation (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table  13  Economic Growth Rates of Major Countries (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table  14  Percent Changes in CPI and Food Index of Major Countries & Regions (EXCEL) (ODF)