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GDP: PRELIMINARY ESTIMATION FOR 2015Q3 AND OUTLOOK FOR 2015-16

Contact Information : Economic Forecast Section, Department of Statistics, Directorate General of Budget, Accounting & Statistics (DGBAS)
Tel : 886-2-2380-3487

November 27, 2015 Taiwan's real gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 0.63% from the same quarter of the previous year in 2015Q3, according to the latest preliminary estimation by DGBAS. The GDP is predicted to grow 1.06% and 2.32% in 2015 and 2016, respectively.

Preliminary Estimation of 2015Q3 GDP and Forecast for 2015

        Taiwan's export plummeted due to the sluggish demand in global consuming electronic products, the crowding out effects from the expanded supply chain in Mainland China and the falling prices of crude oil. Coupling with weak domestic demand, Taiwan's GDP was estimated to decrease by 0.63% in 2015Q3, compared to the same quarter of 2014. In the meantime, the real GDP growth rates of 2015Q1 and Q2 were revised to 4.04% and 0.57% (formerly 3.84% and 0.52%).

        Looking forward, Taiwan's GDP will be expected to grow by 0.49% in 2015Q4. Incorporating the previous three quarters, real GDP will grow by 1.06% in 2015. CPI is predicted to decline by 0.31%.

Outlook for 2016

        The world economy is anticipated to have a better performance in 2016, which will sustain Taiwan's export growth. Combining with the domestic demand, real GDP will grow by 2.32% in 2016. CPI will increase by 0.84%.

Revision for the 2013 and 2014 National Accounts

        DGBAS also released the annual revision of the 2013 and 2014 national accounts. The yearly GDP growth rates were revised to 2.20% (original 2.23%) for 2013 and 3.92% (3.77%) for 2014.

Full text and tables (PDF)

【Attachment】

  • Table 1-1 Gross Domestic Product and Economic Growth Rate (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 1-2 GDP、GNI and NI (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table   2  Changes in Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 3-1 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : At Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 3-2 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Composition at Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 3-3 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Growth Rates In Chained Volume Indexes(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 3-4 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Contributions to Economic Growth Rate(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 4-1 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : At Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 4-2 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Composition at Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 4-3 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Growth Rates In Chained Volume Indexes(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 4-4 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Contributions to Economic Growth Rate (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table   5  Gross National Savings and Gross Domestic Investment (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table   6  Exports and Imports (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 7-1 Gross Domestic Product and Factor Incomes : At Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 7-2 Growth Rates in Gross Domestic Product and Factor Incomes : At Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 7-3 Composition of Gross Domestic Product and Factor Incomes : At Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table   8  Gross Domestic Product and Gross Fixed Captial Formation of the ICT Industry (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 9-1 Expenditures on GDP, Seasonally Adjusted : Chained dollars (Reference year = 2011) (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 9-2 Expenditures on GDP, Seasonally Adjusted : Growth Rates (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  10  Indicators for Private Final Consumption Expenditure (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  11  Indicators for Private Gross Fixed Capital Formation (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  12  Major Indicators of Consumer Banking (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  13  Economic Growth Rates of Major Countries (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  14  The Changes of Consumer Price Indices for Major Countries (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  15  Summary of Earning and Productivity Statistics in Taiwan Area (EXCEL) (ODF)