Contact Information : Economic Forecast Section, Department of Statistics, Directorate General of Budget, Accounting & Statistics (DGBAS)
Tel : 886-2-2380-3487
November 28, 2014 Taiwan's real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 3.63% from the same quarter of the previous year in 2014Q3, according to the latest preliminary estimation by DGBAS. The GDP is predicted to grow 3.43% and 3.50% in 2014 and 2015, respectively. Meanwhile, DGBAS has released the comprehensive revision of GDP from 1951 through 2013.
Preliminary Estimation of 2014Q3 GDP and Forecast for 2014
Strong external demand accelerated the increment of real goods and services export and drove the domestic demand in 2014Q3. Taiwan's GDP was estimated to increase by 3.63%, compared to the same quarter of 2013. In the meantime, the real GDP growth rate of 2014Q1 and Q2 were revised to 3.41% and 3.87% (formerly 3.24% and 3.74 %).
Looking forward, Taiwan's GDP will be expected to grow by 2.83% in 2014Q4. Incorporating the previous three quarters, real GDP will grow by 3.43% in 2014. CPI is predicted to rise by 1.18%.
Outlook for 2015
The momentum of world economy is anticipated to improve slightly in 2015, and will limit Taiwan's export growing. Combining with the domestic demand, real GDP will grow by 3.50% in 2015. CPI will increase by 0.91%.
Comprehensive Revision of the National Accounts:
DGBAS has released revised statistics of Taiwan's National Accounts from 1951 through 2013. The comprehensive revisions include the implementation of System of National Accounts (2008SNA), and the adoption of the chain-linking method to estimate the real GDP growth. Meanwhile, reference year is updated from 2006 to 2011, and nominal value of GDP in 2011 is aligned according to the latest results of related census and surveys.
The main changes in definition, classification and presentation based on the 2008SNA include
● The expenditures for research and development (R&D) by private and public sector are recognized as fixed capital formation.
● Social security funds are classified into the government sector.
● The improved method to estimate the output of insurance services, and the modified treatment of reinsurance.
● Instead of fixed-based method, the measure of real GDP is estimated by the chain-linking approach.
As a result of the comprehensive revision, the average annual growth rate of real GDP from 2007 to 2013 is revised to 3.42%, 0.14 percent points higher than the original figure (3.28%).
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