National Statistics, Republic of China (Taiwan)

August 19, 2016　According to the latest revised estimation, Taiwan's real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased by 0.29% in 2016Q1, compared to the same quarter of the previous year (yoy), and the latest preliminary estimation of real GDP grew by 0.70% (yoy) in Q2. The GDP is predicted to grow 1.22% and 1.88% in 2016 and 2017, respectively.

Preliminary Estimation of real GDP in 2016Q2
        The real GDP increased by 0.23% on a quarter-on-quarter, seasonally-adjusted annualized basis(saar), and grew by 0.70% on a year-on-year basis(yoy) in 2016Q2, 0.01 percentage point higher than the advanced estimate.
        Meanwhile, the economic growth rate of 2016Q1 has been revised to -0.29% (formerly -0.68%).
        On the demand side, real private final consumption grew by 1.23% (yoy) in 2016Q2, mainly reflecting the increase of consumption on transport, clothing-and-footwear and insurance, that were partly offset by the decrease of consumption on food and beverages.
        Real gross capital formation contracted by 3.10% (yoy), primarily due to declines in both transport equipments and construction investments, offsetting an increase in machinery and equipment expenditure.
        Real exports of goods and services grew by 0.63% (yoy), a reversal from the 4.04% contraction in the previous quarter. Growth was mainly driven by the foreign demand for electronic components. Imports also increased by 0.21% (yoy).
        On the production side, the agriculture sector decreased by 8.71% (yoy) in 2016Q2, following the 11.74% contraction in the previous quarter, due to abnormal weather conditions.
        The manufacturing sector decreased by 0.03%(yoy) in 2016Q2, compared to the 3.20% decline in the previous quarter, mainly due to output expansion of semiconductor, computer equipment and basic metal products.
        The finance and insurance sector increased by 1.34% in 2016Q2, following the growth of 3.24% in the previous quarter.

Forecast for 2016
        The global economic outlook has softened, mainly dragged by the advanced economy's weaker outlook. The further slowdown in the growth of China and global financial turmoil weigh on world economic prospects. Moreover, the aftermath of Brexit (the United Kingdom exit from The European Union) referendum implied a substantial increase in uncertainty which is projected to have negative macroeconomic consequences.
        With a subdued outlook for the world economy and China's import substitution strategy, Taiwan's export momentum is restrained, real exports of goods and services is projected to grow by 1.45%.
        Real private final consumption is projected to grow 1.59% at a modest path, reflecting Taiwan's sluggish economy and low wage growth.
        Real private gross fixed capital formation is expected to grow 1.15%, supported by semiconductor manufacturers’ investment on machinery and equipment for developing advanced process. Yet, the declining housing market restrains construction investment expenditure.
        For the whole year, taking into account the above factors and following that real GDP growth rate (yoy) was upwardly revised to 0.21% (formerly was expected -0.09%) in the first half year, real GDP will grow by 1.22% in 2016 and has been revised upward 0.16 percentage point.
        Consumer price Indices (CPI) will increase by 1.12% in 2016 and has been revised upward 0.03 percentage point, because the damage of extreme weather and the influence of typhoon brought high prices of vegetables and fruits.

Outlook for 2017
        The world economy is anticipated to improve gradually in 2017, which will sustain Taiwan's export growth. Combining the contribution from domestic sector, real GDP will grow by 1.88% in 2017. CPI will gently rise by 0.78%.

Full text and tables (PDF)

【Attachment】

• Table 1-1 Gross Domestic Product and Economic Growth Rate (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 1-2 GDP、GNI and NI (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table   2  Changes in Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 3-1 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : At Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 3-2 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Composition at Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 3-3 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Growth Rates In Chained Volume Indexes(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 3-4 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Contributions to Economic Growth Rate(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 4-1 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : At Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 4-2 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Composition at Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 4-3 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Growth Rates In Chained Volume Indexes(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 4-4 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Contributions to Economic Growth Rate (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table   5  Gross National Savings and Gross Domestic Investment (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table   6  Exports and Imports (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 7-1 Expenditures on GDP, Seasonally Adjusted : Chained dollars (Reference year = 2011) (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 7-2 Expenditures on GDP, Seasonally Adjusted : Growth Rates (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table   8  Indicators for Private Final Consumption Expenditure (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table   9  Indicators for Private Gross Fixed Capital Formation (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table  10  Economic Growth Rates of Major Countries (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table  11  The Changes of Consumer Price Indices for Major Countries (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table  12  Summary of Earning and Productivity Statistics in Taiwan Area (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table  13  Major Figures of Family Income and Expenditure (1/2) (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table  13  Major Figures of Family Income and Expenditure (2/2) (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table  14  The Change of Disposable Income per Household Occurred by Current Transfers between Households and Government (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table  15  Household Income Distribution of Major Countries(Area) (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table  16  Household Facilities and Housing in Taiwan Area (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table  17  Government Social Transfers In Kind Effect on Income Distribution, by Income Quintile (EXCEL) (ODF)