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GDP: Preliminary Estimate for 2017Q2 and Outlook for 2017-18

Contact Information : Economic Forecast Section, Department of Statistics, Directorate General of Budget, Accounting & Statistics (DGBAS)
Tel : 886-2-2380-3487

According to the preliminary estimate, Taiwan's real gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 2.13% in 2017Q2, compared to the same period of the previous year (yoy), and the revised estimate of real GDP grew by 2.66% (yoy) in Q1. The real GDP is predicted to grow 2.11% and 2.27% in 2017 and 2018, respectively.

Preliminary Estimate of Real GDP in 2017Q2
        In 2017Q2, the real GDP increased 0.47%, compared with the previous quarter on seasonally-adjusted annualized basis(saar), and grew by 2.13% on a year-on-year basis(yoy), 0.03 percentage point higher than the advance estimate.
        Meanwhile, the economic growth rate of 2017Q1 has been revised to 2.66% (formerly 2.60%).
        On the demand side, real private final consumption grew by 2.05%(yoy) in 2017Q2, mainly reflected the increase of consumption on financial transactions and foreign travels.
        Real gross capital formation expanded by 0.17%(yoy), a pullback from 8.13% in the previous quarter, mainly due to the sharp decline in machinery and transport equipment investment.
        Meanwhile, real exports of goods and services grew by 4.97%(yoy), mainly driven by the foreign demand for parts of electronic product, basic metals and machinery. Imports also increased by 4.37%(yoy).
        On the production side, the manufacturing sector grew by 3.81%(yoy) in 2017Q2, following the 6.82% increase in the previous quarter, mainly due to the surge in output of semiconductor and machinery-and-equipment.
        The wholesale & retail trade sector and the transportation & storage sector increased by 2.95% and 3.18%(both yoy) respectively, after the expansion of 3.58% and 7.02% growth in the previous quarter.

Forecast for 2017
        The global economy is expected to pickup modestly, supported by the sustained recovery both in the advanced economies and emerging markets. However, the pace of monetary policy normalizing in major countries and geopolitical conflict issues will likely add downside risks for the world economy.
        Benefiting from the recovering global demand, particularly demand for electronic products and new technological applications, such as internet of things (IOT), automotive electronics, and artificial intelligence, are expected to support the momentum of Taiwan's goods exports. It's projected that the real exports of goods and services will grow by 4.02% in 2017.
        Real private fixed capital formation is expected to grow by 2.13%, attributing to the continuing investment of semiconductor manufacturing and government's promotions on business investments and innovations.
        Real private consumption, supported by the accelerated economic growth, improving labor market and the vibrant stock market performances, might be dampened by the weaken real wage growth. It is expected to grow by 1.89%.
        For the whole 2017, the projected economic growth is 2.11%, 0.06 percentage point higher than the previous forecast released in May. And CPI for 2017 is expected to increase 0.66%, lower by 0.29 percentage point, mainly reflecting the moderated global crude oil prices and stable weather.

Outlook for 2018
        The world economy is expected to continue growing at a modest pace for 2018, which helps to sustain Taiwan's export growth. Combining the contribution from domestic sector, real GDP will grow by 2.27% in 2018. CPI will gently rise by 0.87%.

Full text and tables (PDF)

【Attachment】

  • Table 1-1 Gross Domestic Product and Economic Growth Rate (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 1-2 GDP、GNI and NI (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table   2  Changes in Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 3-1 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : At Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 3-2 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Composition at Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 3-3 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Growth Rates In Chained Volume Indexes(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 3-4 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Contributions to Economic Growth Rate(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 4-1 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : At Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 4-2 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Composition at Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 4-3 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Growth Rates In Chained Volume Indexes(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 4-4 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Contributions to Economic Growth Rate (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table   5  Gross National Savings and Gross Domestic Investment (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table   6  Exports and Imports (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 7-1 Expenditures on GDP, Seasonally Adjusted : Chained dollars (Reference year = 2011) (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 7-2 Expenditures on GDP, Seasonally Adjusted : Growth Rates (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table   8  Indicators for Private Final Consumption Expenditure (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table   9  Indicators for Private Gross Fixed Capital Formation (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  10  Economic Growth Rates of Major Countries (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  11  The Changes of Consumer Price Indices for Major Countries (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  12  Summary of Earning and Productivity Statistics in Taiwan Area (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  13  Major Figures of Family Income and Expenditure (1/2) (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  13  Major Figures of Family Income and Expenditure (2/2) (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  14  The Change of Disposable Income per Household Occurred by Current Transfers between Households and Government (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  15  Household Income Distribution of Major Countries(Area) (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  16  Household Facilities and Housing in Taiwan Area (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  17  Government Social Transfers In Kind Effect on Income Distribution, by Income Quintile (EXCEL) (ODF)