GDP: Preliminary Estimate for 2016Q4 and Outlook for 2017
Contact Information : Economic Forecast Section, Department of Statistics, Directorate General of Budget, Accounting & Statistics (DGBAS)
Tel : 886-2-2380-3487
February 15, 2017 Taiwan's real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 2.88% from the same quarter of the previous year in 2016Q4, according to the latest preliminary estimate. For the whole 2016, the economic growth rate was 1.50%. Meanwhile, the real GDP is projected to grow by 1.92% in 2017.
Preliminary Estimate of Real GDP in 2016Q4 and 2016
The real GDP increased by 1.82% on a quarter-on-quarter, seasonally-adjusted annualized basis(saar), and grew by 2.88% on a year-on-year basis(yoy) in 2016Q4, 0.30 percentage point higher than the advance estimate.
Meanwhile, the economic growth rate of 2016Q3 have been revised to 2.12% (formerly 2.03%). For the whole 2016, real GDP grew by 1.50%.
On the demand side, real private final consumption grew by 1.62%(yoy) in 2016Q4, mainly reflecting the increase of consumption on transport, restaurants-and-hotels and miscellaneous-goods-and-services.
Real gross capital formation expanded by 8.13%(yoy), following the 3.05% growth in the previous quarter, mainly due to an increase in machinery & other equipment and transport equipment investment.
Meanwhile, real exports of goods and services grew by 8.02%(yoy), which was mainly driven by the foreign demand for parts of electronic product. Imports also increased by 9.58%(yoy).
On the production side, the manufacturing sector was the main driver, which grew by 6.16%(yoy) in 2016Q4, following the 5.16% growth in the previous quarter, mainly due to the output expansion of semiconductor, basic metal and chemical material products.
The wholesale & retail trade sector and the transportation & storage sector increased by 3.36%(yoy) and 8.59% respectively, faster than the 1.58% and 5.59% growth in the previous quarter.
Outlook for 2017
Global economy and world trade volume are expected to expand at a faster path in 2017. Moreover, the emerging demand of new smart applications, such as IOT, high-performance computing and automotive electronics, are helpful to maintain the growth momentum of Taiwan's goods exports. Coupling with services exports, real exports of goods and services will grow by 4.01%.
Real private fixed capital formation will grow by 1.85%, supported by the continuing investment of semiconductor industry and government's strategies to improve investment environment and to encourage innovative industries, offsetting the influences of declining housing market and the relative high base of 2016.
Real private consumption will grow moderately by 1.75%. The improved Taiwan's economy and the continuance of government's tax reduction policy are beneficial to the expansion of consumption expenditures; however, the higher inflation rate may hurt people's purchasing power.
Combining with public sector, Taiwan's real GDP is predicted to grow by 1.92% in 2017 and has been revised upward 0.05 percentage point.
CPI will increase by 1.08% and has been revised upward 0.33 percentage point, mainly reflecting the surging oil prices.
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