GDP: Preliminary Estimate for 2021Q3, and Outlook for 2021-22
Contact Information : Economic Forecast Section, Department of Statistics, Directorate General of Budget, Accounting & Statistics (DGBAS)
Tel : 886-2-2380-3487
November 26, 2021 According to the preliminary estimate, Taiwan’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 3.70% in 2021Q3, compared to the same period of the previous year. Besides, the real GDP is predicted to grow 6.09% and 4.15% in 2021 and 2022, respectively.
Preliminary Estimate of Real GDP in 2021Q3The real GDP increased by 1.07% on a quarter-on-quarter, seasonally-adjusted annualized basis (saar) in 2021Q3, or grew by 3.70% on a year-on-year basis (yoy, same as below), 0.10 percentage point lower than the advanced estimate.
Meanwhile, the economic growth rates of 2021Q1 and Q2 have been revised to 9.20% and 7.76% (formerly 9.27% and 7.43%).
On the demand side, real private final consumption fell by 5.60% in 2021Q3 mainly reflecting the expenditure slump caused by pandemic restrictions, and the high base boosted by government stimulus packages in the same quarter of the previous year.
Real gross capital formation expanded by 31.69%, primarily owing to the surge of the investment in machinery equipment as well as transportation equipment and construction.
In addition, real exports of goods and services grew by 14.31%, mainly driven by the strong foreign demand for electronic parts and ICT products, as well as the significantly growth of traditional products. Imports also increased by 21.84%.
On the production side, the manufacturing sector grew by 13.06% in 2021Q3, following the 16.92% increase in the previous quarter, mainly due to the output expansion of semiconductor, fabricated metal products, and machinery & equipment.
The wholesale & retail trade sector and the transportation & storage sector decreased by 2.79% and 13.04% respectively, after the expansion of 6.02% and 4.74% growth in the previous quarter.
Forecast for 2021The pandemic has been limited, the economic activity is enhancing in consequence. The domestic capacity expansion of semiconductor manufacturers and reshoring oversea companies concurrently response to emerging demand for new technological applications, such as 5G, automotive electronics, and high performance computing (HPC) related applications. As well as the demand rebound generally associated with the global economy recovery, both will support Taiwan’s export in 2021. It is expected for real exports of goods and services to grow by 16.75%.
Real private consumption is expected to grow by 0.07%, mainly owing to the local pandemic, and the pickup in Q4 amid restrictions easing and the introducing of government’s stimulus measures.
Real private fixed capital formation is anticipated to grow by 18.88%. In addition to the booming investment of semiconductor industry and the reshoring Taiwan’s overseas companies, it is also driven by the 5G infrastructure, offshore wind energy, and transportation companies expanding fleet capacity.
Combining the above components as well as the public sector, Taiwan’s real GDP is projected to grow by 6.09% in 2021, upward revised by 0.21 percentage point from the previous forecast.
Consumer price Index (CPI) will increase 1.98%, upward revised by 0.24 percentage point, mainly reflecting the raising crude oil, raw material and food prices.
Outlook for 2022As the resolutions of supply chain bottleneck, the global economy will keep growing in sound pace. The world trade volume is projected to continue growing by 6.7% in 2022, according to International Monetary Fund (IMF). Taiwan’s export and investment will grow continuingly, supported by enlarging domestic production capacity, spurred by the continuing massive investment of dominant semiconductor manufacturing and reshoring companies. In aggregate with services exports, real exports of goods and services will grow by 3.39% in 2022.
Regarding domestic demands, real private consumption will grow by 5.36%, supported by the steady growing economy, wage and income raise supported by the robust corporation profitability and salary lifting measures, and the effect of a low base. Real private fixed capital formation will grow by 2.52%, owing to the continuing investment of semiconductor industry and offshore wind turbine energy.
Combining the above components as well as the public sector, Taiwan’s real GDP is projected to grow by 4.15% in 2022. CPI will increase 1.61%.
Revision for the 2019 and 2020 National AccountsBase on the newly available source data, DGBAS released the annual revision of the 2019 and 2020 national accounts. The yearly GDP growth rates have been revised to 3.06% (original 2.96%) for 2019 and 3.36% (3.12%) for 2020.
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