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GDP: Preliminary Estimate for 2019Q2 and Outlook for 2019-20

Contact Information : Economic Forecast Section, Department of Statistics, Directorate General of Budget, Accounting & Statistics (DGBAS)
Tel : 886-2-2380-3487

According to the preliminary estimate, Taiwan's real gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 2.40% in 2019Q2, compared to the same period of the previous year (yoy), and the growth rate (yoy) of 2019Q1 has been revised to 1.83%. The real GDP is predicted to grow 2.46% and 2.58% in 2019 and 2020, respectively.

Preliminary Estimate of Real GDP in 2019Q2
        The real GDP increased by 2.72% on a quarter-on-quarter, seasonally-adjusted annualized basis (saar), and grew by 2.40% on a year-on-year basis (yoy) in 2019Q2, 0.01 percentage point lower than the advance estimate.
        On the demand side, real private final consumption grew by 1.55% (yoy) in 2019Q2, higher than the 1.46% growth in the previous quarter, mainly reflecting the growing sales of cars and boutiques, as well as new opening department stores and retail outlets, partly offset by a decrease in sales of information and communications equipment, and the declines in securities transaction fees.
        Real gross fixed capital formation rose by 7.51% (yoy), faster than the 6.85% growth in the previous quarter, primarily due to the increase in machinery and equipments investment as well as transport equipments.
        In addition, real exports of goods and services grew by 4.13% (yoy), stronger than the 0.87% growth in the previous quarter, mainly driven by the foreign strong demand for information, communication and audio-video products, as well as refined petroleum products. Imports also increased by 3.68% (yoy).
        On the production side, the manufacturing sector increased by 1.02%(yoy) in 2019Q2, following the 2.68% decrease in the previous quarter, mainly due to the output expansion of computers, electronic & optical products.
        The wholesale & retail trade sector and the financial & insurance sector increased by 2.79% and 1.80%(both yoy) respectively, after the expansion of 2.22% and 0.39% growth in the previous quarter.
        Meanwhile, the economic growth rate of 2019Q1 has been revised to 1.83% (formerly 1.71%).

Forecast for 2019
        The weak global demand, mainly owing to the international trade conflicts and worldwide weaker demand for mobile devices, would drag the export growth. However, the reshoring of manufacturing companies will increase the domestic production capacity, and partly offset the drag. Along with exports of services, it is projected that the real exports of goods and services will grow by 3.47% in the whole 2019.
        Real private fixed capital formation is expected to grow by 5.01%, driven by the sustaining investment of semiconductor manufacturing, and the manufacturers’ relocation encouraged by the government’s “Action Plan for Welcoming Overseas Taiwanese Businesses to Return to Invest in Taiwan”.
        Real private consumption will grow by 2.03%, supported by the stable labor market, the individual income tax cuts, and the subsidy program for domestic travel and energy-efficient appliances replacement, but continuously dampened by the declining demographic dividend, the economic uncertainties and volatile financial market.
        Combining with the public sector, Taiwan’s real GDP is predicted to grow by 2.46% in 2019, 0.27 percentage point higher than the previous forecast released in May.
        CPI will increase by 0.67%, downwardly revised by 0.04 percentage point, mainly reflecting the falling raw material prices.

Outlook for 2020
        World trade volume is expected to grow at a faster path in 2020, according to International Monetary Fund (IMF). Moreover, rising domestic production capacity, spurred by the continuing investment of semiconductor manufacturing and reshoring companies, will support Taiwan’s export growth. Combining the contribution from domestic sector, real GDP will grow by 2.58% in 2020. CPI will gently rise by 0.82%.

Full text and tables (PDF)

【Attachment】

  • Table 1-1 Gross Domestic Product and Economic Growth Rate (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 1-2 GDP、GNI and NI (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table   2  Changes in Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 3-1 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : At Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 3-2 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Composition at Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 3-3 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Growth Rates In Chained Volume Indexes(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 3-4 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Contributions to Economic Growth Rate(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 4-1 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : At Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 4-2 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Composition at Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 4-3 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Growth Rates In Chained Volume Indexes(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 4-4 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Contributions to Economic Growth Rate (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table   5  Gross National Savings and Gross Domestic Investment (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table   6  Exports and Imports (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 7-1 Expenditures on GDP, Seasonally Adjusted : Chained dollars (Reference year = 2011) (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table 7-2 Expenditures on GDP, Seasonally Adjusted : Growth Rates (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table   8  Indicators for Private Final Consumption Expenditure (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table   9  Indicators for Private Gross Fixed Capital Formation (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  10  Economic Growth Rates of Major Countries (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  11  The Changes of Consumer Price Indices for Major Countries (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  12  Summary of Earning and Productivity Statistics in Taiwan Area (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  13  Major Figures of Family Income and Expenditure (1/2) (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  13  Major Figures of Family Income and Expenditure (2/2) (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  14  The Change of Disposable Income per Household Occurred by Current Transfers between Households and Government (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  15  Household Income Distribution of Major Countries(Area) (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  16  Household Facilities and Housing in Taiwan Area (EXCEL) (ODF)
  • Table  17  Government Social Transfers In Kind Effect on Income Distribution, by Income Quintile (EXCEL) (ODF)