GDP: Preliminary Estimate for 2019Q1 and Outlook for 2019
Contact Information : Economic Forecast Section, Department of Statistics, Directorate General of Budget, Accounting & Statistics (DGBAS)
Tel : 886-2-2380-3487
The estimates of Taiwan's economic growth rates remained 2.63% for 2018, while slightly revised to 1.80% by 0.02 percentage points for the fourth quarter. For the first quarter of 2019, the real GDP grew by 1.71%, according to the latest preliminary estimate. Besides, the real GDP is predicted to grow by 2.19% in 2019.
Preliminary Estimate of Real GDP in 2019Q1
The real gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 2.33% on a quarter-on-quarter, seasonally-adjusted annualized basis (saar), and grew by 1.71% on a year-on-year basis (yoy) in 2019Q1, 0.01 percentage point lower than the advance estimate.
Meanwhile, the economic growth rates have been revised to 1.80% and 2.63% for the fourth quarter and the whole year of 2018 (formerly 1.78% and 2.63%).
On the demand side, real private final consumption grew by 1.32% (yoy) in 2019Q1, moderating from the 1.46% growth in the previous quarter, mainly resulted by the decreases in sales of autos, information and communication technology equipment, as well as financial services.
Real gross capital formation rose by 6.90% (yoy), lessening from the 9.32% growth in the previous quarter, owing to the declines in transportation equipment investment and changes in inventories.
In addition, real exports of goods and services slightly grew by 0.97% (yoy), largely due to the slowdown of global economic growth, and the high base in the same period of previous year. Imports also increased by 1.13% (yoy).
On the production side, the manufacturing sector decreased by 2.63% (yoy) in 2019Q1, lower than the 2.92% increase in the previous quarter, mainly due to the weak market demand for semiconductor and machinery-and-equipment.
The wholesale & retail trade sector and the accommodation & food service sector increased by 1.97% and 5.03% (both yoy) respectively, after the expansion of 1.45% and 2.55% growth in the previous quarter.
Outlook for 2019
The momentum in the world economy anticipated to be trimmed this year, together with the inventory adjustments in the semiconductor industry and worldwide weaker demand for mobile devices, would drag the export growth. However, the reshoring of major Taiwanese manufacturing companies will increase the domestic production capacity which may partially offset the drag. In aggregate with services exports, it is projected that the real exports of goods and services will grow by 2.62% in 2019.
Real private consumption will grow by 2.02%, supported by labor market improving, the individual income tax cuts, and the subsidy programs for domestic travels and energy-efficient appliances replacements, but continuously dampened by the declining demographic dividend, the economic uncertainties and volatile financial markets.
Real private fixed capital formation is forecast to increase by 4.48%, mainly spurred by the continuing investment of semiconductor manufacturing, and the manufacturers’ relocation encouraged by the government’s “Action Plan for Welcoming Overseas Taiwanese Businesses to Return to Invest in Taiwan”.
Combining with the public sector, Taiwan’s real GDP is predicted to grow by 2.19% in 2019, revised downward 0.08 percentage point from the previous forecast.
CPI will gently increase by 0.71% and has been revised downward 0.02 percentage point, mainly reflecting the decrease in the WPI and the end of the impact for lifting tobacco tax.
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