GDP: Preliminary Estimate for 2018Q1 and Outlook for 2018
Contact Information : Economic Forecast Section, Department of Statistics, Directorate General of Budget, Accounting & Statistics (DGBAS)
Tel : 886-2-2380-3487
Taiwan's economic growth rates have been revised to 3.42% and 2.89% for the fourth quarter and whole year of 2017. For the first quarter of 2018, the latest preliminary estimate of real GDP grew by 3.02%. Besides, the real GDP is predicted to grow by 2.60% in 2018.
Preliminary Estimate of Real GDP in 2018Q1
The real GDP increased by 0.79% on a quarter-on-quarter, seasonally-adjusted annualized basis (saar), or by 3.02% on a year-on-year basis (yoy) in 2018Q1, 0.02 percentage point lower than the advance estimate.
Meanwhile, the economic growth rates have been revised to 3.42% and 2.89% for the fourth quarter and whole year of 2017 (formerly 3.28% and 2.86%).
On the demand side, real private final consumption grew by 2.73% (yoy) in 2018Q1, mainly reflecting the increase of consumption on transport, recreation-and-culture and financial services.
Real gross capital formation decreased by 1.94% (yoy), following the 4.77% decline in the previous quarter, mainly due to a decrease in machinery and equipment investment, as well as inventory decrease.
Meanwhile, real exports of goods and services grew by 6.69% (yoy), mainly driven by the strong foreign demand for electronic components and machinery. Imports also increased by 6.12% (yoy).
On the production side, the manufacturing sector grew by 3.44% (yoy) in 2018Q1, following the 3.12% increase in the previous quarter, mainly due to the output expansion of semiconductor and machinery-and-equipment.
The wholesale & retail trade sector and the financial & insurance sector increased by 4.33% and 7.13% (both yoy) respectively, after the expansion of 3.96% and 7.14% growth in the previous quarter.
Outlook for 2018
The global economy and world trade volume are anticipated to continue expanding at a solid pace. Additionally, the strong semiconductor's demand for new technological applications, such as High-Performance Computing (HPC), automotive electronics, Internet of Things (IoT), as well as Taiwan’s leading-edge semiconductor manufacturing are expected to contribute to exports of goods. Along with exports of services, it is projected that the real exports of goods and services will grow by 3.34% in the whole 2018.
Real private fixed capital formation is forecast to increase by 4.61%, mainly spurred by the continuing investment of semiconductor manufacturing, the government’s implementations to ameliorate investment environment and encourage innovative development of industries, and the recovery of construction investment.
Real private consumption is foreseen to show a moderate growth by 2.53%, supported by stable economic expansion, improving labor market and wage lift, but continue to be dampened by the aging population and low fertility rate.
Combining with the public sector, Taiwan’s real GDP is predicted to grow by 2.60% in 2018, 0.18 percentage point higher than the previous forecast released in February.
CPI will increase by 1.49%, upwardly revised by 0.28 percentage point, mainly reflecting the escalating oil prices.
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