GDP: Preliminary Estimate for 2017Q4 and Outlook for 2018
Contact Information : Economic Forecast Section, Department of Statistics, Directorate General of Budget, Accounting & Statistics (DGBAS)
Tel : 886-2-2380-3487
Taiwan's real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 3.28% from the same quarter of the previous year in 2017Q4, according to the latest preliminary estimate. For the whole 2017, the economic growth rate was 2.86%. Meanwhile, the real GDP is projected to grow by 2.42% in 2018.
Preliminary Estimate of Real GDP in 2017Q4 and 2017
The real GDP increased by 4.34% on a quarter-on-quarter, seasonally-adjusted annualized basis (saar), and grew by 3.28% on a year-on-year basis (yoy) in 2017Q4, same as the advance estimate.
Meanwhile, the economic growth rate of 2017Q3 has been revised to 3.18% (formerly 3.10%). For the whole 2017, real GDP grew by 2.86%.
On the demand side, real private final consumption grew by 2.89% (yoy) in 2017Q4, mainly reflecting the increase of consumption on communication, clothing-and-footwear and financial services.
Real gross capital formation decreased by 4.69% (yoy), following the 8.97% decline in the previous quarter, mainly due to a decrease in machinery and equipment investment.
Meanwhile, real exports of goods and services grew by 6.00% (yoy), mainly driven by the strong foreign demand for electronic components and machinery. Imports also increased by 1.78% (yoy).
On the production side, the manufacturing sector grew by 3.20% (yoy) in 2017Q4, following the 4.45% increase in the previous quarter, mainly due to the output expansion of semiconductor and machinery-and-equipment.
The wholesale & retail trade sector and the financial & insurance sector increased by 3.94% and 7.42% (both yoy), after the expansion of 4.46% and 5.63% growth in the previous quarter.
Outlook for 2018
In 2018, firmly-growing global economy and world trade volume together with the emerging semiconductor's demand for new technological applications, such as internet of things (IOT), automotive electronics, high performance computing and artificial intelligence applications, will support Taiwan's goods exports growth. Coupling with services exports, real exports of goods and services will grow by 1.98%.
Real private fixed capital formation will grow by 3.62%, bolstered by the continuing investment of semiconductor manufacturing and government's measures to improve investment environment and encourage innovative industries.
Real private consumption will grow by 2.45%. The growth mainly benefits from the improvement of employment and stronger wage lift, but subject to the aging population and low fertility rate.
Combining with public sector, Taiwan's real GDP is predicted to grow by 2.42% in 2018, revised upward 0.13 percentage point from the previous forecast.
CPI will increase by 1.21% and has been revised upward 0.25 percentage point, mainly reflecting the rising oil prices and the likely impact caused by recent cold weather.
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