GDP: Preliminary Estimate for 2017Q3 and Outlook for 2017-18
Contact Information : Economic Forecast Section, Department of Statistics, Directorate General of Budget, Accounting & Statistics (DGBAS)
Tel : 886-2-2380-3487
November 24, 2017 Taiwan's real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 3.10% from the same quarter of the previous year in 2017Q3, according to the latest preliminary estimate. The GDP is predicted to grow 2.58% and 2.29% in 2017 and 2018, respectively.
Preliminary Estimate of Real GDP in 2017Q3In 2017Q3, the real GDP increased 6.84%, compared with the previous quarter on seasonally-adjusted annualized basis (saar), and grew by 3.10% on a year-on-year basis (yoy), 0.01 percentage point lower than the advanced estimate.
Meanwhile, the economic growth rate of 2017Q1 and Q2 have been revised to 2.64% and 2.28% (formerly 2.66% and 2.13%).
On the demand side, real private final consumption grew by 2.69% (yoy) in 2017Q3, mainly reflected the increase of consumption on transport, financial services and foreign travels.
Real gross capital formation decreased by 10.41% (yoy), a reversal from the 2.10% growth in the previous quarter, mainly due to the sharp decline in machinery and equipment investment, and inventory decrease.
Meanwhile, real exports of goods and services grew robustly by 11.70% (yoy). Imports also increased by 6.94% (yoy).
On the production side, the manufacturing sector grew by 4.47% (yoy) in 2017Q3, following the 3.35% increase in the previous quarter, mainly due to the output expansion of semiconductor and machinery-and-equipment.
The wholesale & retail trade sector and the finance & insurance sector increased by 4.46% (yoy) and 5.15% respectively, after the expansion of 2.96% and 1.70% in the previous quarter.
Better performance on manufacturing activities turned into a higher demand for goods transportation, the transportation & storage sector grew by 6.01% (yoy) in 2017Q3, much faster than the 2.06% growth in the previous quarter.
Forecast for 2017Taiwan's exports are expected to remain solid in 2017Q4, mainly underpinned by the robust global demands, particularly those for the semiconductor and consumer electronic products. In the domestic sector, real private consumption is maintaining the growth momentum, benefiting from the accelerated economic growth, improving labor market and the vibrant stock market performances. Meanwhile, private fixed capital formation is anticipated to grow at a moderate pace, reflecting the high base of machinery and equipment investment in the previous year.
For the whole 2017, real GDP is expected to grow 2.58%, which is revised upwardly by 0.47 percentage point from the forecast in August.
Consumer price Index (CPI) will increase 0.62% in 2017, lower by 0.04 percentage point than the previous forecast, mainly because of the stabilized weather condition keeping domestic food prices steady.
Outlook for 2018Global economy and world trade volume are anticipated to grow firmly in 2018, together with the emerging demand for new technological applications, such as internet of things (IOT), automotive electronics, and artificial intelligence, will support Taiwan's goods exports growth. Coupling with services exports, real exports of goods and services will grow by 2.63% in 2018.
Regarding domestic demands, real private consumption will grow stably by 2.08% in 2018. Real private fixed capital formation will grow by 2.83%, driven by the continuing investment of semiconductor industry and government’s promoting measures on business investments and innovations.
Combining with public sector, Taiwan's real GDP is predicted to grow by 2.29% in 2018. CPI will gently increase 0.96%.
Revision for the 2015 and 2016 National AccountsBase on the newly available source data, DGBAS released the annual revision of the 2015 and 2016 national accounts. The yearly GDP growth rates have been revised to 0.81% (original 0.72%) for 2015 and 1.41% (1.48%) for 2016.
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