National Statistics, Republic of China (Taiwan)

November 29, 2022　According to the preliminary estimate, Taiwan’s real gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 4.01% in 2022Q3, compared to the same period of the previous year. Besides, the real GDP is predicted to grow 3.06% and 2.75% in 2022 and 2023, respectively.

Preliminary Estimate of Real GDP in 2022Q3

        The real GDP increased by 7.51% on a quarter-on-quarter, seasonally-adjusted annualized basis(saar) in 2022Q3, and grew by 4.01% on a year-on-year basis(yoy, same as below), 0.09 percentage point lower than the advanced estimate.

        Meanwhile, the economic growth rates of 2022Q1 and Q2 have been revised to 3.87% and 2.95% (formerly 3.72% and 3.05%).

        On the demand side, real private final consumption grew by 6.95 % (yoy) in 2022Q3, primarily due to recovery in consumption such as retail, dining out, recreation and transportation, compared to low base of 2021 nationwide pandemic alert period.

        Regarding gross capital formation, investment in machinery equipment, construction and intellectual property products grew continuously. Combining inventory changes, real gross capital formation expanded by 0.31% (yoy).

        In addition, real exports of goods and services grew by 2.75% (yoy), dragged by weakened global demand and intensified inventory adjustment. Imports increased by 2.30% (yoy).

        On the production side, the manufacturing sector grew by 2.83% in 2022Q3, following the 3.79% increase in the previous quarter, mainly due to the output expansion of semiconductor and computers, electronic & optical products.

        The wholesale and retail trade sector increased by 1.84%, after the expansion of 1.69% in the previous quarter.

        The transportation and storage sector grew by 16.26% in 2022Q3, due to the growing number of passengers taking public transport.

        The financial and insurance sector decreased by 5.31% in 2022Q3, following the 2.36% decline in the previous quarter.

Revision for the 2020 and 2021 National Accounts

        Base on the newly available source data, DGBAS released the annual revision of the 2020 and 2021 national accounts. The yearly GDP growth rates have been revised to 3.39% (original 3.36%) for 2020 and 6.53 % (6.57%) for 2021.

Forecast for 2022

        High prices of oil and raw material caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and bottlenecks of the global supply chain still sustain. Most economies are removing the accommodation of monetary policy to response inflation pressure. Both might pull back the momentum of private consumption and fixed capital formation. Additionally, the zero-COVID policy in China also weighs on global economy.

        Despite the emerging demand for new technological applications and enterprise digitalization supported Taiwan’s export in the first half of 2022, the inflation situation, tightening monetary policies and the pandemic control in China all weaken global demand in the second half. In aggregate with services exports, real exports of goods and services will grow by 3.96% in 2022.

        Real private consumption is projected to grow by 3.29%. As the domestic COVID-19 control restrictions are being eased, consumption is backing to normality, the growth also benefits from the improvement of employment and wage lift.

        The continuing investment of semiconductor industry and the reshoring Taiwan’s overseas companies mainly spur the investment lately, it is also driven by the sustaining investment in green energy and its supportive industries’ capacity and equipments. However, the investment plan may be postponed or paused because of the uncertainty toward global outlook and inventory correction. Real private fixed capital formation will grow by 7.30%.

        Combining the above components as well as the public sector, Taiwan’s real GDP is projected to grow by 3.06% in 2022, downward revised by 0.70 percentage point from the previous forecast.

        Consumer price Index (CPI) will increase 2.94%, upward revised by 0.02 percentage point, mainly reflecting the cost due to higher import prices, and significant prices hike in food away from home and residential rent. The prices for travel related expenses will remain high owing to increasing of the cross-border tourism.

Outlook for 2023

        According to International Monetary Fund (IMF), the momentum of global demand is crumbling, indicated by the world trade volume projected to grown by 2.5% in 2023, lower than 4.3% in 2022, and may drag the export growth. However, the capacity expansion of leading semiconductor manufacturers and sustaining investment in offshore wind energy will support investment growth. Combining the contribution from domestic sector, with the recovering consumption driven by flourishing cross-border tourism, real GDP will grow by 2.75% in 2023. CPI will rise by 1.86%.

Full text and tables (PDF)

【Attachment】

• Table 1-1 Gross Domestic Product and Economic Growth Rate (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 1-2 GDP、GNI and NI (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table   2  Changes in Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 3-1 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : At Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 3-2 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Composition at Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 3-3 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Growth Rates In Chained Volume Indexes(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 3-4 Expenditures on Gross Domestic Product : Contributions to Economic Growth Rate(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 4-1 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : At Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 4-2 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Composition at Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 4-3 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Growth Rates In Chained Volume Indexes(yoy) (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 4-4 Gross Domestic Product by Kind of Activity : Contributions to Economic Growth Rate (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table   5  Gross National Savings and Gross Domestic Investment (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table   6  Exports and Imports (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 7-1 Gross Domestic Product and Factor Incomes : At Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 7-2 Growth Rates in Gross Domestic Product and Factor Incomes : At Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 7-3 Composition of Gross Domestic Product and Factor Incomes : At Current Prices (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 8-1 Value-Added Rate by Kind of Activity (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 8-2 Value-Added Rate by Kind of Manufacturing (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table   9  Gross Domestic Product and Gross Fixed Captial Formation of the ICT Industry (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 10-1 Expenditures on GDP, Seasonally Adjusted : Chained dollars (Reference year = 2016) (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table 10-2 Expenditures on GDP, Seasonally Adjusted : Growth Rates (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table  11  Indicators for Private Final Consumption Expenditure (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table  12  Indicators for Private Gross Fixed Capital Formation (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table  13  Economic Growth Rates of Major Countries (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table  14  The Changes of Consumer Price Indices for Major Countries (EXCEL) (ODF)
• Table  15  Summary of Earning and Productivity Statistics in Taiwan Area (EXCEL) (ODF)