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GDP: Preliminary Estimate of 2012Q3 and Latest Outlook for 2012- 2013

Contact Information : Economic Forecast Section, Department of Statistics, Directorate General of Budget, Accounting & Statistics (DGBAS)
Tel : 886-2-2380-3487

November 23, 2012 Taiwan's seasonally adjusted real gross domestic product (GDP) of 2012Q3 increased by 3.91% over the previous quarter in annualized rate. Meanwhile, the predictions of 2012 and 2013 GDP growth rate are revised to 1.13% and 3.15% respectively.

Preliminary Estimation of 2012Q3 GDP and Forecast for 2012

        The passive consumer sentiment curbed the private consumption and pressed the growth of domestic demand. Associated with flat external sector, the seasonally adjusted annual rate (saar) of real GDP was 3.91% in 2012Q3. The saar of 2012Q1 and Q2 were revised to 5.56% and -0.37%. Meanwhile, the year-on-year (yoy) GDP growth rate in 2012Q3 was 0.98%. The yoy of 2012Q1 and Q2 were revised to 0.59% and -0.12% as well.

        Looking forward, recent Taiwan's export is benefited from pick-up of chips and components demands for the upcoming new mobile device products, which pushes the expansion of external sector in 2012Q4. In whole, real GDP is forecasted to grow by 1.13% in 2012. CPI is predicted to rise by 1.93%.

Outlook for 2013

        The momentum of world economy is anticipated to improve gradually in 2013, despite of various uncertainties. In consequence, Taiwan's export is expected to grow gently. Added with domestic sector, real GDP will grow by 3.15% in 2013. CPI will raise 1.27%.

Revision for the 2011 and 2010 National Accounts

        DGBAS also released the annual revision of the 2011 and 2010 national accounts. The yearly GDP growth rate was revised to 4.07%(original 4.03%) for 2011, and 10.76%(10.72%) for 2010.

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